🎯 Moneyline to Probability Converter
Convert American odds to implied winning probability
Enter American Odds
Quick Examples
What are Moneyline Odds?
Moneyline odds (also called American odds) are displayed with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. They indicate how much you need to bet to win $100 (for favorites) or how much you'll win on a $100 bet (for underdogs).
➖ Negative Odds (Favorites)
- -150: Bet $150 to win $100
- -200: Bet $200 to win $100
- -300: Bet $300 to win $100
- Lower numbers = higher probability of winning
➕ Positive Odds (Underdogs)
- +150: Win $150 on a $100 bet
- +200: Win $200 on a $100 bet
- +300: Win $300 on a $100 bet
- Higher numbers = lower probability of winning
🎲 Even Odds
+100 or -100: 50/50 chance
Bet $100 to win $100
This represents true even money where both outcomes are equally likely.
What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome winning based on the betting odds. It represents the bookmaker's assessment of the event's probability, including their margin (vig/juice).
📐 Calculation Formulas
Negative Odds:
Probability = (|Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)) × 100%
Positive Odds:
Probability = (100 / (Odds + 100)) × 100%
💡 Finding Value Bets
Compare implied probability to your assessed probability:
- If your probability > implied probability = Value bet
- If your probability < implied probability = Avoid
⚠️ The Vig Factor
Combined probabilities of all outcomes usually exceed 100% due to bookmaker's margin (vig).
Example: -110/-110 line = 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%
Common Moneyline Conversions
| American Odds | Implied Probability | $100 Bet Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| -500 | 83.33% | Win $20, Return $120 |
| -300 | 75.00% | Win $33.33, Return $133.33 |
| -200 | 66.67% | Win $50, Return $150 |
| -150 | 60.00% | Win $66.67, Return $166.67 |
| -110 | 52.38% | Win $90.91, Return $190.91 |
| +100 | 50.00% | Win $100, Return $200 |
| +150 | 40.00% | Win $150, Return $250 |
| +200 | 33.33% | Win $200, Return $300 |
| +300 | 25.00% | Win $300, Return $400 |
| +500 | 16.67% | Win $500, Return $600 |
Using Probability for Smart Betting
1️⃣ Assess True Probability
Do your research and determine what you believe the actual winning probability is based on stats, form, and other factors.
2️⃣ Compare to Implied
Use this converter to calculate the bookmaker's implied probability from the offered odds.
3️⃣ Find the Edge
If your assessed probability is higher than the implied probability, you've found a value bet worth considering.