Moneyline to Probability Converter
Convert American odds to implied winning probability
Enter American Odds
Quick Examples
What are Moneyline Odds?
Moneyline odds (also called American odds) are the standard odds format used in the United States for sports betting. They use a plus (+) or minus (-) sign followed by a number to indicate both the favorite/underdog status and the potential payout.
Moneyline Conversion Formulas
Negative Odds (Favorites):
Implied Probability = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100) × 100%
Positive Odds (Underdogs):
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100) × 100%
Example: -200 odds converts to: 200 / (200 + 100) × 100 = 66.67% implied probability
Understanding Moneyline Odds Types
Negative Odds (Favorites)
Format: -150, -200, -300
Meaning: Amount you must bet to win $100
Examples: -150 means bet $150 to win $100, -200 means bet $200 to win $100
Lower absolute numbers indicate stronger favorites with higher win probability
Positive Odds (Underdogs)
Format: +150, +200, +300
Meaning: Amount you win on a $100 bet
Examples: +150 means win $150 on $100 bet, +200 means win $200 on $100 bet
Higher numbers indicate bigger underdogs with lower win probability but higher payouts
Even Money (+100/-100)
Format: +100 or -100
Meaning: 50/50 proposition
Payout: Bet $100 to win $100 regardless of sign
Represents true even odds where both outcomes are equally likely before vig
Real-World Conversion Examples
Example 1: Heavy Favorite (-300)
Moneyline: -300 (Kansas City Chiefs)
Calculation: 300 / (300 + 100) = 0.75
Implied Probability: 75%
Interpretation: Bookmaker estimates 75% chance of winning. Must bet $300 to win $100.
Example 2: Standard Line (-110)
Moneyline: -110 (Point Spread)
Calculation: 110 / (110 + 100) = 0.5238
Implied Probability: 52.38%
Interpretation: Most common odds in spreads. Bet $110 to win $100, representing slight favorite.
Example 3: Big Underdog (+250)
Moneyline: +250 (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Calculation: 100 / (250 + 100) = 0.2857
Implied Probability: 28.57%
Interpretation: Long shot with less than 30% win probability. Win $250 on $100 bet.
Common Moneyline Conversions
| American Odds | Implied Probability | Decimal Odds | $100 Bet Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| -500 | 83.33% | 1.20 | Win $20, Return $120 |
| -300 | 75.00% | 1.33 | Win $33.33, Return $133.33 |
| -200 | 66.67% | 1.50 | Win $50, Return $150 |
| -150 | 60.00% | 1.67 | Win $66.67, Return $166.67 |
| -110 | 52.38% | 1.91 | Win $90.91, Return $190.91 |
| +100 | 50.00% | 2.00 | Win $100, Return $200 |
| +150 | 40.00% | 2.50 | Win $150, Return $250 |
| +200 | 33.33% | 3.00 | Win $200, Return $300 |
| +300 | 25.00% | 4.00 | Win $300, Return $400 |
| +500 | 16.67% | 6.00 | Win $500, Return $600 |
Professional Tips for Using Moneyline Odds
Compare Implied vs True Probability
Calculate the implied probability from odds, then compare it to your own assessment. If your probability is higher, you may have found a value bet worth considering.
Understand the Vig
Add both sides' implied probabilities. The amount over 100% is the bookmaker's margin. Lower vig means better value for bettors.
Shop for Better Lines
Different sportsbooks offer different moneylines. A difference between -110 and -105 can significantly impact long-term profitability.
Don't Chase Big Underdogs
Large positive odds (+300 or higher) are tempting but rarely offer value. Bookmakers often overcharge on longshots to exploit recreational bettors.
Track Your Results
Keep detailed records of your bets with actual vs implied probability. This helps identify if you're consistently finding value or overestimating chances.
Use Multiple Conversion Tools
Convert to decimal and fractional odds to gain different perspectives. Some value bets become more obvious in different formats.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are American moneyline odds?
American moneyline odds use a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to indicate favorites and underdogs. Negative odds show how much you need to bet to win $100, while positive odds show how much you win on a $100 bet. For example, -150 means bet $150 to win $100, while +150 means win $150 on a $100 bet.
How do I convert moneyline to implied probability?
For negative odds, divide the absolute value by (absolute value + 100) and multiply by 100. For positive odds, divide 100 by (odds + 100) and multiply by 100. For example, -200 converts to 66.67% probability and +150 converts to 40% probability.
What is implied probability in betting?
Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome winning based on betting odds. It represents the bookmaker's assessment including their margin (vig). The implied probability helps you identify value bets by comparing it to your own probability assessment.
Why do moneyline probabilities add up to more than 100%?
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% because bookmakers include their margin (vigorish or juice) in the odds. A typical -110/-110 line equals 104.76% total probability, with the extra 4.76% being the bookmaker's edge. This ensures they profit regardless of the outcome.
What does -110 moneyline mean?
-110 is the standard betting line in American sports betting. It means you must bet $110 to win $100, representing a 52.38% implied probability. This is the most common odds format for point spread bets and creates the bookmaker's standard margin.
How can I find value bets using moneyline odds?
Compare the implied probability from the moneyline to your own assessment of the true winning probability. If your calculated probability is higher than the implied probability, you have found a potential value bet. Always ensure your assessment is based on thorough research and analysis.