Crypto.com Launches OG.com: What Margin Trading Means for the Prediction Market Wars

Crypto.com launched OG.com on February 3, 2026 — a standalone prediction market platform that enters a $6 billion-per-week industry with a feature no competitor currently offers: margin trading on event contracts. The timing is deliberate. With the Super Bowl days away, prediction market volumes hitting record highs, and the Kalshi-Polymarket duopoly facing mounting state-level legal challenges, Crypto.com is betting that its full-stack CFTC licensing and leveraged trading capability can carve out a differentiated position in the fastest-growing segment of online trading.

The Launch: Super Bowl Timing and a Crowded Field

OG.com arrives during the single biggest week in prediction market history. Combined monthly trading volume across major platforms climbed from roughly $2 billion in August 2025 to $17.5 billion in January 2026 — six consecutive months of growth. The Pro Football Champion 2026 market alone has generated $695.7 million in volume, with the Super Bowl winner contract trading over $150 million. Launching a prediction market platform this week is the equivalent of opening a sports bar on game day.

The platform covers sports, finance, politics, entertainment, and cultural events through CFTC-regulated event contracts. At its core, OG.com uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) — the same transparent price discovery mechanism used by traditional derivatives exchanges — rather than the automated market maker (AMM) model favored by some crypto-native platforms.

“Crypto.com successfully built one of the largest brands and best app experiences in cryptocurrency during a period of hypergrowth amid a complex regulatory landscape, and now we will work to replicate this experience with OG in the prediction market space. We’ve experienced 40x weekly growth in our prediction market business over the last six months.”
— Kris Marszalek, CEO, Crypto.com

Beyond trading mechanics, OG.com leans into social features: leaderboards, trader connections, opinion sharing, and what the platform calls “triumphs” for celebrating winning predictions. The VIP program leverages Crypto.com’s existing sports partnerships — holders get access to experiences tied to the Crypto.com Arena, UFC events, Formula 1, and UEFA Champions League. The first million users to sign up receive up to $500 in rewards, though the exact structure depends on activity levels.

What Is Margin Trading in Prediction Markets?

This is the feature that separates OG.com from every other regulated prediction market — and it deserves a careful explanation, because it fundamentally changes the risk profile of event contract trading.

In a standard prediction market, buying a position requires full collateral. If you want to buy 1,000 “YES” shares on an event priced at $0.15 each, you need $150 in your account. If the event happens, those shares settle at $1.00 each and you collect $1,000. If it doesn’t happen, you lose your $150. Simple.

Margin trading introduces leverage. With 5x leverage on that same trade, you’d only need $30 of your own capital to control the $150 position. The platform effectively lends you the rest. If the event resolves in your favor, your return is amplified — a $850 profit on $30 of capital rather than on $150. But the downside is equally amplified.

Here’s the critical difference most coverage glosses over: with leverage, your position can be forcibly closed (liquidated) before the event even resolves. In a standard prediction market, you can hold a losing position through volatility and wait for the outcome. With margin, if the price moves against you enough to deplete your margin deposit, the platform closes your position automatically.

Consider a concrete example. You buy “YES” on “Seahawks win the Super Bowl” at $0.69 with 3x leverage. Days before the game, Drake Maye injury news drops and the price crashes to $0.50. Your margin is depleted — position liquidated. The Seahawks go on to win the Super Bowl. Your prediction was correct, but you lost everything because of interim price movement.

One important caveat: margin trading on OG.com is still pending CFTC certification. Crypto.com’s DCM order was amended in September 2025 to include margined derivatives, and its FCM (Foris DAX FCM LLC) is registered with the NFA, but the specific margin products have not yet received final certification. The feature is coming — but it’s not available on day one.

Crypto.com’s Prediction Market Empire

OG.com isn’t a standalone bet — it’s the consumer-facing piece of a broader infrastructure play. Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA) holds the only “full stack” of CFTC licenses in the prediction market industry: a Designated Contract Market (DCM) to list and trade event contracts, a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) to clear and settle trades, and a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) to hold customer funds and — critically — offer margin.

Most competitors either partner with existing exchanges or operate under a single license. Kalshi operates its own DCM but doesn’t have an FCM. Polymarket operated offshore until acquiring QCEX for its US return. DraftKings and Robinhood function as introducing brokers, routing orders through other platforms. Crypto.com built the entire stack — exchange, clearinghouse, and brokerage — which gives them the flexibility to offer products like margin trading that depend on having FCM capabilities.

The dual strategy is clear: power everyone else’s prediction markets (B2B) while also operating a direct-to-consumer platform (B2C). This is analogous to Amazon selling products on its own marketplace while running AWS for competitors. Even if OG.com struggles for market share directly, CDNA profits from every partner’s volume. Crypto.com is also a founding member of the Coalition for Prediction Markets alongside Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog — an industry group lobbying for federal regulatory clarity.

The Prediction Market Wars: A $76 Billion Battleground

OG.com enters an industry experiencing explosive growth — and intensifying competition. The prediction market wars produced staggering numbers in 2025, and the early weeks of 2026 have already surpassed them.

Kalshi cleared $43.1 billion in 2025 — a 2,100% increase year-over-year — driven overwhelmingly by sports contracts, which account for 91.1% of its volume. The platform recently closed a funding round at an $11 billion valuation. Polymarket, which dominated the 2024 election cycle, posted $33.4 billion in 2025 volume and has since acquired QCEX to facilitate its US relaunch. Together, these two platforms processed over $76 billion in prediction market volume last year.

But the duopoly is fracturing. FanDuel launched FanDuel Predicts with CME Group on December 22, 2025, starting in five states. DraftKings received NFA/CFTC approval as an introducing broker on December 4, 2025, and launched DraftKings Predictions in 38 states. Robinhood, currently routing orders through Kalshi, has announced plans to build its own proprietary prediction market in 2026. Coinbase rolled out Kalshi-powered markets across all 50 states in December 2025. Gemini has entered the space. The field is getting crowded fast.

Manifold Markets runs a meta-prediction contract on which platform will lead 2026 volume. Current odds: Polymarket at 47%, Kalshi at 34%, with everyone else — including Crypto.com — sharing the remaining 19%. The 2026 midterm elections are expected to break all-time volume records and could reshape those odds significantly.

Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape is shifting on two fronts. At the federal level, new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig — sworn in December 22, 2025 — has been aggressively pro-prediction-market. He withdrew a proposed ban on sports and political event contracts, rescinded a 2025 staff advisory urging caution, and announced on January 29, 2026 that the CFTC will write comprehensive new rules for prediction markets, stating: “It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets.”

But state-level opposition is intensifying. A Massachusetts court issued a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state — a ruling that strikes at 91% of Kalshi’s volume if replicated elsewhere. Nevada banned Polymarket. Tennessee issued cease-and-desist orders against both Kalshi and Polymarket. Connecticut held a hearing on prediction market regulation on February 12. The NFL banned prediction market ads from the Super Bowl while its own partners FanDuel and DraftKings launch competing products. Kalshi alone faces 19 federal lawsuits with uncertain outcomes.

What This Means for Bettors

If you’re coming from traditional sports betting, prediction markets operate differently — and margin trading adds another layer of complexity.

Margin trading makes sense for experienced traders who want capital efficiency — the ability to take positions across multiple markets without tying up full collateral in each one. It also makes sense for traders who actively manage positions, setting stop-losses and monitoring price movements. OG.com’s social features (leaderboards, trader connections) and VIP program (access to Crypto.com Arena events, UFC, F1, Champions League) add engagement layers that competitors lack.

One potential advantage worth noting: CFTC-regulated event contracts may receive more favorable tax treatment than traditional sports betting in some jurisdictions, as they’re classified as derivatives rather than gambling. Consult a tax professional, but this is a meaningful distinction for high-volume traders.

OG.com uses a flat per-contract fee model inherited from CDNA, with the technology fee waived on winning trades — effectively reducing fees by 50% when you’re correct. Specific fee percentages haven’t been publicly disclosed yet.

The Risks

Beyond the inherent risks of leveraged trading, several platform-specific and industry-wide risks deserve attention.

OG.com’s sports contracts face restrictions in eight states beyond the New York exclusion: Arizona, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio. If the Massachusetts precedent spreads — a court ruling that sports prediction contracts constitute illegal gambling — more states could restrict access. The federal-versus-state jurisdictional battle is far from resolved, and CFTC Chairman Selig’s assertion of “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts hasn’t been tested at the Supreme Court level.

Margin trading, when it launches, introduces liquidation risk that doesn’t exist on any other regulated prediction market platform. Prediction market prices can be volatile — news events, injuries, and sentiment shifts can cause sharp moves. Unlike crypto or equity markets where leverage has decades of infrastructure and risk management tooling, leveraged prediction market trading is entirely new. The guardrails are untested.

Finally, OG.com enters a market where the two dominant players (Kalshi and Polymarket) have significant network effects. Liquidity begets liquidity — traders go where the markets are deepest. Building competitive order book depth across hundreds of event contracts will be OG.com’s biggest operational challenge, regardless of how many features it offers.

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Sources

• Crypto.com Launches OG — A New Prediction Market Experience — Crypto.com Official
• Crypto.com Launches OG Press Release — PR Newswire
• Crypto.com Obtains Full Stack of CFTC Derivatives Licenses — Crypto.com Official
• FanDuel and CME Group Launch FanDuel Predicts — CME Group
• Kalshi $11 Billion Valuation Announcement — Kalshi
• Coalition for Prediction Markets Launch — Kalshi