Google’s latest finance update is turning heads: the tech giant announced on November 6, 2025 that it is partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi – two leading prediction market platforms – to pipe real-time odds on future events directly into Google Search and Google Finance. Users will soon see crowd-sourced predictions (e.g. the probability of a recession next year or an election outcome) alongside traditional financial data, bringing an emerging, once-niche concept into the mainstream.
Key Takeaways
- Google is integrating prediction market data from Polymarket (valued at ~$9 billion) and Kalshi (valued at ~$5 billion) into Google Search and Google Finance
- Users can now query future events and see market-implied probabilities drawn from live trades, making crowd-sourced forecasting accessible to millions
- Prediction markets are positioned as data tools, not gambling – Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, and Polymarket has secured U.S. regulatory approval
- This marks a mainstream shift for prediction markets, with other platforms like Robinhood and MetaMask also integrating event-based trading
- Key challenges remain including regulatory uncertainty, liquidity concerns, and potential market manipulation
Inside the Integration: How It Works
Google is embedding Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s market data into its search interface to answer forward-looking questions. Here’s how it works:
- Natural language queries: Users can type questions like “What will GDP growth be for 2025?” or “Will the U.S. enter a recession in 2025?”
- Real-time probability display: Google Finance shows the current market-implied probability drawn from live trades on Polymarket/Kalshi
- Historical tracking: Charts display how probabilities have changed over time as news and trading sentiment evolved
- Wisdom of the crowds: The system aggregates collective market intelligence to provide instant forecasts
For example, a query about recession odds might display “Market odds say 30% yes,” with a timeline showing how that percentage has moved based on economic data and trader sentiment.
Prediction Markets vs. Gambling: Drawing the Line
One critical question arises: How is this different from gambling? The timing is particularly interesting given Google’s recent crackdown on gambling content – tightening advertising policies and implementing stricter YouTube rules for casino promotion just weeks before this announcement.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let people trade contracts on the outcomes of future events. Key characteristics include:
- Contract-based trading: Users buy “yes” or “no” shares on events (e.g., “Candidate X will win the election”)
- Price reflects probability: If a “yes” share trades at $0.30, it implies a 30% perceived chance of the event happening
- Information aggregation: Markets harness crowdsourced knowledge and can be more accurate than expert polls
- Real stakes: Traders put money where their mouth is, incentivizing informed predictions
The Key Distinctions from Gambling
Google draws a clear line based on purpose and regulation. Here’s a comprehensive comparison:
The Regulatory Framework
Both integrated platforms have established regulatory legitimacy, distinguishing them from controversial gaming operations that push legal boundaries:
- Kalshi: Regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market – trading is legally akin to trading futures or options
- Polymarket: Was barred from serving U.S. users in 2022 after a CFTC settlement, but has since acquired a regulated derivatives exchange and received regulatory approval to operate in the USA
This regulatory compliance is crucial to Google’s comfort level in featuring prediction data as market data rather than gambling content.
Democratizing Access to Crowd Wisdom
The integration’s most significant impact is accessibility. Previously, accessing prediction market insights required:
- Knowledge of these niche platforms
- Navigating to sites like Polymarket (often requiring crypto wallets)
- Signing up for accounts on platforms like Kalshi
Now, millions of everyday Google users can access these insights with a simple search query. What was once confined to crypto enthusiasts and finance professionals is now available to anyone searching on Google – dramatically expanding the audience for prediction market data and normalizing the “wisdom of crowds” concept in mainstream finance.
The Bigger Picture: A Growing Trend
Google’s integration is part of a wider wave of interest in event-based trading and forecasting sweeping tech and finance. Political prediction markets, like Trump’s Truth Predicts platform, have also emerged as players in this rapidly evolving space.
Robinhood’s Entry
Trading app Robinhood launched “event contracts” in early 2025 in partnership with Kalshi, allowing millions of users to trade on outcomes like economic indicators and sports games. By fall 2025, an estimated 25–35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume came from Robinhood users.
MetaMask Integration
MetaMask (30+ million users) recently integrated Polymarket’s markets directly into its crypto wallet app, allowing users to speculate on real-world events without leaving their wallet – transforming it into a “super-app” for on-chain finance.
Challenges and Concerns
Despite the momentum, several important challenges remain:
Regulatory Uncertainty
- Different countries have varying stances on prediction markets
- Some jurisdictions have outright bans (Polymarket remains barred in the UK)
- Lawmakers are divided: some call them “digital casinos” while others see them as innovative forecasting tools
- As markets go mainstream, regulators will need clear frameworks
Liquidity and Data Reliability
- Small market size: Prediction markets are still relatively small compared to stock or forex markets
- Price volatility: Single large trades can significantly move odds in low-liquidity markets
- Misleading confidence: Casual users may treat displayed probabilities as definitive when they’re based on modest trading activity
Manipulation Risks
There’s concern that bad actors could intentionally place bets to influence displayed odds and shape public perception – especially problematic for highly visible markets now featured on Google. Transparency and countermeasures will be critical as prediction data becomes more influential.
A New Era of Forecasting
Google’s integration of Polymarket and Kalshi could be remembered as a pivotal moment in the evolution of market-based forecasting. It signals that prediction markets have “arrived” in the eyes of Big Tech, moving from the fringes into mainstream financial conversation.
The implications are profound:
- Cultural shift: Checking the “odds” of major world events may become as common as checking weather forecasts
- Increased accuracy: Larger, more diverse crowds should theoretically make markets more accurate and informative
- Tech adoption: Other platforms will likely follow Google’s lead, incorporating crowd-prediction data
- Decision-making evolution: We may rely less solely on experts and more on collective intelligence
Google is carefully balancing on the frontier of innovation and regulation, betting that the wisdom of crowds can be a force for insight rather than just a wager. If successful, this integration could fundamentally shift how society derives expectations about the future – making the crowd’s collective intelligence an integral part of how we understand the world’s possibilities.
The question may no longer be whether prediction markets will influence mainstream thinking, but rather how profoundly.
