Polymarket Archives

Tesla–SpaceX Merger Odds: What Counts as a Deal Announcement?

Tesla–SpaceX merger odds depend on the deadline and what qualifies as an announcement. Here is what the contracts measure.

News 7 days ago 10 min read

Polymarket Rolls Out Self-Exclusion and U.S. Deposit Limits

Polymarket introduces voluntary self-exclusion and U.S. deposit caps, with different protections documented for its two platforms.

News 3 weeks ago 6 min read

New York Sues Polymarket; Company Files Federal Challenge

New York seeks gambling penalties against Polymarket US as the company brings the dispute into federal court.

News 4 weeks ago 10 min read

Lithuania Blocks Polymarket: Access and Payment Orders

Lithuania’s Polymarket enforcement involved separate access and payment instructions, with an August court ruling preceding September announcements.

News September 20, 2026 8 min read

Stake Blocked Ireland After GRAI Pressure, Eyes License

Stake has closed Irish registrations and intends to seek a license, while prediction-market restrictions and customer refund questions remain distinct.

News September 15, 2026 10 min read

Is Polymarket Legal in Europe? What ESMA’s Warning Changes

ESMA says Polymarket and Kalshi lack EU authorization. Our 27-state map shows the platforms' block lists do not match the regulators'.

News September 14, 2026 21 min read

Prediction Market Taxes 2026: The IRS Still Won’t Answer

Halfway through 2026 the IRS still has not said how prediction market winnings are taxed, leaving traders with three defensible answers.

News August 14, 2026 17 min read

Kalshi Recession Odds Hit 6%: What the Number Really Means

Kalshi’s recession market is in single digits, but its narrow GDP rule changes what that signal really means.

News August 3, 2026 11 min read

Fauci Fifth Amendment: 100+ Refusals as Arrest Odds Jump

Fauci takes the Fifth 100+ times after diary release as contempt and prediction odds swirl.

News July 30, 2026 12 min read

Wisconsin Election Betting Can Cost You Your Vote

Wisconsin says betting on an election you then vote in is a felony, escalating its prediction-market fight from platforms to bettors.

News July 26, 2026 10 min read

CLARITY Act Prediction Markets: 12 Senators Demand a Ban

Twelve Senate Democrats want sports and casino-style event contracts banned in the CLARITY Act. Then leadership let the deadline slip.

News July 25, 2026 17 min read

George Cottrell’s Polymarket $9M Trump Bet Under Scrutiny

A convicted fraudster's Polymarket account took nearly $9M from unknown wallets and bet it all on Trump. Whose money was it?

News July 25, 2026 10 min read