D'Alembert System Calculator

Calculate pyramid betting progressions and analyze risk with this balanced negative progression system

Parameters

Configure your pyramid betting progression to analyze risk and bankroll requirements

Your starting bet amount
Amount to increase/decrease after each loss/win
Your total available funds
Number of losses in worst-case scenario
Estimated win probability (Roulette: 48.6%)

Analysis Results

Maximum Bet Size
$0
After specified losing streak
Total Wagered
$0
Sum of all bets in progression
Bankroll Status
Sufficient
Can you afford this streak?
Streak Probability
0%
Likelihood of this losing streak
Betting System Warning: The D'Alembert system cannot overcome the house edge. While it offers better bankroll management than Martingale, it's based on the gambler's fallacy. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

What is the D'Alembert Betting System?

The D'Alembert system is a negative progression betting strategy developed based on the equilibrium theory. Named after 18th-century French mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert, this system operates on the principle that wins and losses should eventually balance out over time. It's considered one of the safest negative progression systems because it uses linear increases rather than exponential doubling like the Martingale system.

D'Alembert Betting Rules

After a Loss: Increase bet by 1 unit

After a Win: Decrease bet by 1 unit

Minimum Bet: Never go below base bet

Example: Starting at $10 with $5 units. After loss: bet $15. After win from $15: bet $10. The progression climbs slowly and descends with wins, creating a pyramid pattern.

D'Alembert vs Other Betting Systems

D'Alembert System

Best For: Conservative players seeking balanced risk

Risk Level: Low to Moderate

Pros: Slow progression, manageable bet sizes, lower variance than Martingale

Linear increase makes it sustainable for longer sessions with moderate bankrolls

Martingale System

Best For: Players with large bankrolls

Risk Level: High

Pros: Fast loss recovery, simple to implement

Exponential doubling leads to massive bets quickly - 8 losses can require 256x base bet

Fibonacci System

Best For: Mathematical approach enthusiasts

Risk Level: Moderate

Pros: Slower than Martingale, recovers on sequences

Based on Fibonacci sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13...) - moderate progression speed between D'Alembert and Martingale

Critical Limitations & Risks

The Gambler's Fallacy

D'Alembert is based on the false premise that wins and losses must balance out. In reality, each bet is independent. A coin that landed heads 10 times still has 50% chance of heads next flip - there's no "memory" or equilibrium forcing tails.

House Edge Always Wins

No betting system can overcome negative expected value. If a game has 48.6% win probability (like roulette), you lose 2.8% long-term regardless of bet sizing. D'Alembert only manages how fast you lose, not whether you lose.

Slow Loss Recovery

Unlike Martingale which recovers all losses in one win, D'Alembert requires multiple wins to break even after a losing streak. A 6-loss streak needs approximately 6 wins to return to profit, and you must win more than you lose to overcome the house edge.

Table Limits Still Apply

While D'Alembert hits table limits slower than Martingale, long losing streaks can still exceed maximum bet restrictions. A $10 base with $10 units reaches $100 after 9 losses - many table limits cap at 20-40x minimum bet.

Best Practices vs Common Pitfalls

Best Practices

  • Use small unit increases (10-20% of base bet)
  • Maintain bankroll of 50-100x base bet minimum
  • Set maximum bet limit (10x base bet recommended)
  • Only play even-money bets near 50% probability
  • Set strict session loss limits before playing
  • Track all bets to monitor actual performance

Common Pitfalls

  • Using large unit increases that escalate too quickly
  • Playing with insufficient bankroll for streak length
  • Believing the system guarantees eventual profit
  • Using on games with high house edge or low win probability
  • Chasing losses beyond predetermined stop-loss point
  • Ignoring that each bet is statistically independent

Real-World D'Alembert Examples

Example 1: Conservative Roulette Session

Setup: $500 bankroll, $10 base bet, $5 unit increase

Sequence: $10 (L), $15 (L), $20 (W), $15 (W), $10 (W)

Result: Total wagered: $70 | Total lost: $25 | Remaining bankroll: $475

Analysis: Despite 3 wins vs 2 losses, net result is negative due to larger bets on losing outcomes

Example 2: Extended Losing Streak

Setup: $1,000 bankroll, $20 base, $10 unit increase, 8 consecutive losses

Progression: $20, $30, $40, $50, $60, $70, $80, $90

Total Wagered: $440 | Remaining Bankroll: $560

Recovery: Needs 8+ wins to return to profit, assuming perfect alternating wins

Example 3: Maximum Bet Limit Reached

Setup: $10 base, $10 units, table max $200

Limit Hit: After 19 consecutive losses ($10 + 19×$10 = $200)

Total Risk: $1,995 wagered to reach limit

Probability: At 48.6% win rate, 19 loss streak = 0.00037% (extremely rare but possible)

Professional D'Alembert Tips

Small Unit Ratios

Keep your unit increase at 10-25% of your base bet. A $10 base should use $1-2.50 units, not $5-10. This extends your playable streak length and reduces variance significantly.

Set Maximum Bet Caps

Establish a maximum bet limit before starting - typically 10x your base bet. When reached, either reset to base or stop playing. This prevents rare but devastating long losing streaks.

Use Modified Versions

Consider Reverse D'Alembert (increase on wins, decrease on losses) for trending opportunities, or Contra D'Alembert which may preserve capital better during negative expectation games.

Track Win/Loss Patterns

Record every session to identify actual win rates versus expected. If your real win rate is below 47% on even-money bets, no progression system can save you - the house edge is too large.

Combine with Session Limits

Set both time limits (60-90 minutes) and loss limits (20-30% of session bankroll). D'Alembert doesn't prevent losses, it just manages bet sizing - discipline prevents emotional decisions.

Understand the Math

D'Alembert doesn't change expected value. If house edge is 2.7% (European roulette), you lose $2.70 per $100 wagered on average regardless of progression. Only play for entertainment, not profit expectation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the D'Alembert betting system?

The D'Alembert system is a negative progression betting strategy where you increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease by one unit after a win. Named after 18th-century French mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert, it's based on the theory of equilibrium - the idea that wins and losses should eventually balance out.

How does D'Alembert compare to Martingale?

D'Alembert is much safer than Martingale because it uses linear progression (adding units) instead of exponential doubling. While Martingale doubles after each loss, D'Alembert only increases by one unit, requiring less bankroll and reaching table limits more slowly. However, it also recovers losses more slowly than Martingale.

What is the best unit size for D'Alembert?

Most professionals recommend a unit size of 1-2% of your total bankroll, with a base bet of 2-3 units. For example, with a $1,000 bankroll, use $10-20 as your unit size and start with a $20-40 base bet. This ensures you can sustain 10-15 consecutive losses without depleting your bankroll.

Does the D'Alembert system guarantee profits?

No, the D'Alembert system cannot overcome the house edge or negative expected value. While it manages bankroll better than Martingale and can produce short-term profits, the equilibrium theory it's based on is a gambler's fallacy. Past results do not influence future outcomes in independent events like roulette spins.

What games work best with D'Alembert?

D'Alembert works best on even-money bets with approximately 50% win probability, such as roulette red/black, baccarat banker/player, or craps pass/don't pass. Avoid using it on games with high house edge or bets with significantly less than 50% win probability, as the system accelerates losses in such scenarios.

How much bankroll do I need for D'Alembert?

A safe bankroll is at least 50-100 times your base bet. If your base bet is $10, maintain a bankroll of $500-1,000. This provides enough buffer to survive typical losing streaks of 8-12 consecutive losses while keeping your maximum bet reasonable relative to your total funds.