Martingale Strategy Calculator and Simulator
Updated:Simulate Martingale's exponential risk before betting real money
Martingale Simulator
Enter your values and watch how the Martingale system plays out in realistic scenarios
What is the Martingale System?
The Martingale system is a betting strategy where you double your bet after every loss and return to your base bet after a win. The theory suggests that a single win will recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to your original bet. In practice, this creates catastrophic risk through exponential bet growth.
Martingale Progression Formula
Next Bet = Previous Bet × 2
Bet sequence after n losses:
- Bet 1: $10 (initial bet)
- Bet 2: $20 (after 1 loss)
- Bet 3: $40 (after 2 losses)
- Bet 4: $80 (after 3 losses)
- Bet n: Initial bet × 2(n-1)
Example: Starting with $10, after 10 consecutive losses your next bet must be $10,240 - and you've already wagered $10,230 to get there.
Martingale vs Other Betting Systems
Martingale System
Best For: No one - extremely high risk
Risk Level: Catastrophic
Pros: High win frequency (90%+), simple to understand
Cons: Exponential losses, table limits, guaranteed eventual ruin
Flat Betting
Best For: Beginners, recreational players
Risk Level: Low
Pros: Predictable losses, no catastrophic risk
Simple and sustainable - same bet amount every time
Kelly Criterion
Best For: Advantage players with positive edge
Risk Level: Moderate (with proper edge)
Pros: Mathematically optimal for +EV situations
Only works when you have a verified statistical advantage
Why the Martingale System Fails
Exponential Growth Destroys Bankrolls
After 10 consecutive losses starting with $10, your next bet needs to be $10,240. Very few players have the bankroll to sustain this progression, and those who do will eventually hit a streak that wipes them out.
Table Limits Break the System
Casinos impose maximum bet limits (typically $500-$5,000) specifically to prevent Martingale. When you hit the table limit during a losing streak, you cannot continue doubling and the system completely fails.
Small Wins vs Catastrophic Losses
You win your base bet ($10) 90% of the time but lose your entire bankroll ($1,000+) 10% of the time. The expected value is always negative because the house edge applies to every single bet you make.
House Edge Never Goes Away
Martingale doesn't change the fundamental probability of each bet. With a 47.37% win rate on roulette, you still have negative expected value. The betting system merely changes when and how dramatically you lose.
Safe Betting vs Martingale Disaster
Safe Betting Practices
- Bet 1-2% of bankroll per wager (fixed percentage)
- Accept that losing streaks are normal and inevitable
- Use flat betting to manage variance predictably
- Set strict loss limits before each session
- Only play games where you have proven edge
- Track all bets and review performance monthly
Martingale Pitfalls
- Doubling bets after losses (Martingale)
- Believing you can "beat" negative EV games
- Ignoring table limits in your calculations
- Risking entire bankroll to win small amounts
- Assuming winning streaks will arrive in time
- Using borrowed money or essential funds
Real-World Martingale Examples
Example 1: Conservative Player ($10 initial, $500 bankroll)
Sequence: $10 → $20 → $40 → $80 → $160 → $320
Total Wagered: $630 (exceeds bankroll after bet 6)
Reality: 6 consecutive losses = busted. At 47.37% win rate, this happens ~1 in 71 sessions.
Example 2: Aggressive Player ($25 initial, $1,000 bankroll)
Sequence: $25 → $50 → $100 → $200 → $400 → $800
Total Wagered: $1,575 (exceeds bankroll after bet 5)
Reality: 5 consecutive losses = busted. Happens ~1 in 37 sessions. You're betting $1,000+ to win $25.
Example 3: Table Limit Reality ($10 initial, $500 max bet)
Sequence: $10 → $20 → $40 → $80 → $160 → $320 → [BLOCKED]
Next bet needed: $640 (exceeds table maximum)
Reality: System breaks at loss 6. You've lost $630 and cannot continue the progression.
Expert Tips for Avoiding Martingale Traps
Understand Probability
At 47.37% win rate (roulette), 7 consecutive losses happen 1 in 133 sessions. This seems rare until you realize it's guaranteed to occur with enough play.
Calculate Your Max Streak
Use this calculator to see exactly how many losses you can survive. Most players are shocked to learn they can only withstand 5-7 consecutive losses before going broke.
Respect Table Limits
Table maximums exist specifically to break Martingale. Even with unlimited bankroll, you'll hit the table limit and be unable to continue doubling your bets.
Consider Expected Value
Every bet in a negative EV game loses money over time, regardless of betting system. Martingale just concentrates those losses into spectacular blow-ups instead of gradual decline.
Use Flat Betting Instead
Betting the same amount every time gives you predictable variance and no catastrophic loss risk. You'll lose slowly to house edge rather than explosively to bad luck.
Accept Losing Streaks
Even at 55% win rate, you'll see 10+ consecutive losses eventually. No betting system can prevent this. The only winning move is not to play -EV games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Martingale betting system?
The Martingale system is a betting strategy where you double your bet after every loss and return to your base bet after a win. The idea is that a single win will recover all previous losses plus profit equal to your original bet, but it carries extreme risk of catastrophic losses.
Does the Martingale system work?
The Martingale system fails in practice because it requires exponentially growing bets during losing streaks, eventually hitting table limits or depleting your bankroll. You risk huge losses to win tiny profits, and the house edge still applies to every bet.
Why do casinos allow Martingale betting?
Casinos allow Martingale betting because table limits prevent unlimited doubling, and the exponential growth of required bets means players run out of money or hit the maximum bet before recovering losses. The house edge ensures casinos profit long-term.
What is the main risk of the Martingale system?
The main risk is exponential loss escalation. After 10 consecutive losses starting with $10, your next bet needs to be $10,240. Most players lack sufficient bankroll, and even if they do, table limits prevent continuing the sequence.
How many losses can I survive with Martingale?
The number of losses you can survive depends on your starting bet, total bankroll, and table limits. With a $500 bankroll and $10 starting bet, you can only survive 5-6 consecutive losses before running out of money or hitting typical table limits.
Are there better alternatives to Martingale?
Yes, safer alternatives include flat betting (same amount each time), fixed percentage betting (betting a small percentage of bankroll), or the Kelly Criterion for positive edge situations. These strategies minimize catastrophic loss risk while maintaining sustainable play.