🎰 Martingale System Simulator
Test the Martingale betting strategy and see why it doesn't beat the house
See What Happens
Enter your values and watch how the Martingale system plays out
What is the Martingale System?
The Martingale system is a betting strategy where you double your bet after every loss and return to your base bet after a win. The idea is that a single win will recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to your original bet.
How It Works
- Bet $10 → Lose → Next bet $20
- Bet $20 → Lose → Next bet $40
- Bet $40 → Lose → Next bet $80
- Bet $80 → Win → Total loss: $10 + $20 + $40 = $70, Win $80, Net profit = $10
The Promise: You always win your original bet amount... until you don't.
⚠️ Why Martingale Fails
🚫 Exponential Growth
After 10 consecutive losses starting with $10, your next bet needs to be $10,240. Most people don't have that kind of bankroll.
🎰 Table Limits
Casinos impose maximum bets. If you hit the table limit during a losing streak, you can't double anymore and the system breaks.
💸 Small Wins, Huge Losses
You win your base bet ($10) frequently but when you bust, you lose your entire bankroll ($1,000+). The math doesn't work out.
📉 Negative Expected Value
The house edge still applies. Martingale doesn't change the odds - it just changes when and how you lose.
Understanding Your Results
Reading the Simulation
- Success Rate: Percentage of sessions where you reached your target profit. Often high (70-90%) for small targets.
- Bust Rate: Percentage of sessions where you lost everything. This is the killer.
- Expected Value: Your average outcome per session. Almost always negative due to house edge.
- Average Loss: When you bust, you typically lose your entire bankroll or close to it.
Typical Results:
90% success rate × $10 profit = $900 total wins
10% bust rate × $1,000 loss = $1,000 total losses
Net Result: -$100 over 100 sessions
The Mathematics Behind Martingale
Bet Sequence Calculation
Starting bet × 2n where n = number of losses
$10 → $20 → $40 → $80 → $160 → $320 → $640 → $1,280...
Total Risk After N Losses
Total wagered = Starting bet × (2n+1 - 1)
After 7 losses: $10 × (28 - 1) = $2,550 wagered
Probability of N Consecutive Losses
P(losing streak) = (Loss probability)N
At 47.37% win rate: P(10 losses) = (0.5263)10 = 0.14% or 1 in 714
Better Alternatives
Flat Betting
Bet the same amount every time. Lower variance, predictable losses, no risk of catastrophic bust.
Kelly Criterion
Bet a percentage of bankroll proportional to your edge. Only works if you have an actual advantage.
Fixed Percentage
Bet a fixed percentage (1-5%) of your current bankroll. Automatically adjusts bet size as bankroll changes.
Don't Use a System
No betting system can overcome house edge. The best strategy is not to play -EV games.