Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the expected value of any bet to determine if it's profitable in the long run. Find +EV opportunities and build your edge.
Expected Value Analysis
Calculation Breakdown
Long-term Projection
* Projections assume consistent stake and edge. Actual results will vary due to variance.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value is the mathematical foundation of profitable sports betting. It represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times.
The formula is simple but powerful:
A positive EV (+EV) bet means you have an edge over the sportsbook. A negative EV (-EV) bet means the house has the edge. Professional bettors only place +EV bets.
How to Find +EV Betting Opportunities
1. Use Sharp Book Lines
Calculate no-vig odds from sharp books like Pinnacle. If another book offers better odds than the no-vig line, you've found a +EV opportunity.
2. Track Closing Line Value
If you consistently beat the closing line (the final odds before an event), you're likely making +EV bets. CLV is the best predictor of long-term success.
3. Build Your Own Models
Develop statistical models to estimate true probabilities. Compare your predictions to market odds to identify edges in specific markets.
4. Exploit Line Movement
Get early access to lines before sharp money moves them. Soft books often have slower line movement, creating brief +EV windows.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the odds - Input the betting odds in your preferred format (American, Decimal, or Fractional)
- Set your stake - Enter how much you plan to wager on this bet
- Estimate win probability - This is the key input. Use research, models, or no-vig lines to estimate the true probability
- Calculate EV - See your expected value, edge percentage, and long-term projections
- Make your decision - Only bet if EV is positive and the edge meets your minimum threshold
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Expected Value (EV) in sports betting?
Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable over time, while a negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money. Professional bettors focus exclusively on finding +EV opportunities.
How do you calculate Expected Value?
Expected Value is calculated using the formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) - (Loss Probability × Stake). For example, if you bet $100 at +150 odds with a 45% true win probability: EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = +$12.50 per bet.
What is a good Expected Value percentage?
Any positive EV is good, but professional bettors typically look for edges of 2-5% or higher. An edge of 5% means for every $100 wagered, you expect to profit $5 on average. Sharp bettors may bet on edges as low as 1-2% with high volume, while recreational bettors should seek larger edges to account for variance.
How do I find my true win probability?
Finding true probability requires research and handicapping. Common methods include: using no-vig odds from sharp books like Pinnacle as a baseline, building your own models based on statistics, tracking closing line movement, or using consensus odds across multiple sportsbooks. The key is finding situations where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability from the odds.
Why do I lose even with +EV bets?
Variance (luck) affects short-term results significantly. A +EV bet can still lose - that's gambling. However, over hundreds or thousands of bets, the math works out and +EV bettors profit. This is why bankroll management is crucial - you need enough bets for the expected value to manifest while avoiding ruin from short-term losing streaks.
What is the difference between EV and edge?
Expected Value (EV) is the dollar amount you expect to win or lose per bet, while edge (or ROI) is the percentage return on your wager. They're related: Edge% = (EV / Stake) × 100. A $5 EV on a $100 bet equals a 5% edge. Both metrics help identify profitable betting opportunities.