Spread to Moneyline Converter
Estimate the fair moneyline price for any point spread
What is a Point Spread?
A point spread is a handicap applied to equalize betting action between two teams of different skill levels. The favorite must win by more than the spread for a spread bet to pay out, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) and still cover.
For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are -7 against the Denver Broncos (+7), a bet on the Chiefs requires them to win by 8 or more points. A bet on the Broncos wins if they lose by 6 or fewer, or win the game.
How Does This Converter Work?
This calculator uses a statistical model based on the normal distribution of scoring margins. In NFL games, the standard deviation of point differentials is approximately 13.5 points. By treating the spread as the expected margin of victory, we can calculate the probability of winning outright.
A team with a spread of -7 in a game with total of 47:
Z-Score = 7 / 13.5 ≈ 0.52
Win Prob ≈ 70% → Moneyline ≈ -230
Common NFL Spread to Moneyline Conversions
While exact conversions depend on the game total, here are typical relationships for NFL games (assuming ~47 point total):
| Spread | Est. Moneyline | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | ~53% |
| -3 | -145 | ~59% |
| -6 | -210 | ~68% |
| -7 | -240 | ~70% |
| -10 | -350 | ~78% |
| -14 | -550 | ~85% |
| +3 | +125 | ~41% |
| +7 | +195 | ~30% |
Why the Total Matters
Game totals (over/under) affect the spread-to-moneyline relationship because variance scales with scoring. In a low-scoring defensive battle (Total: 38), a 7-point lead is more secure than in a high-scoring shootout (Total: 55).
This is why the same spread can imply different moneylines depending on the expected scoring environment. Our calculator adjusts for this by scaling the standard deviation based on the total.
Spread vs Moneyline: When to Use Each
- Use Spreads when betting heavy favorites. A -350 moneyline requires risking $350 to win $100, while a -110 spread bet is more capital efficient.
- Use Moneylines when you believe an underdog will win outright. Getting +200 on a dog you think wins is often better than +7 at -110.
- Compare Both to find value. If the estimated fair moneyline is -200 but the book offers -175, the moneyline may be the better bet.
Limitations
This model works best for NFL and College Football. NBA games have different scoring dynamics with higher variance and more comebacks. The estimates should be used as a baseline for comparison, not as precise fair odds.
For the most accurate conversions, consider using our No-Vig Calculator with actual sportsbook lines to find the true implied probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you convert a spread to a moneyline?
There is no single mathematical formula because spreads depend on the scoring environment (Total Points). However, historical data allows us to estimate the "fair" moneyline for any given spread. For example, an NFL -3 favorite wins about 59% of the time, implying a moneyline around -145.
Why does the Total (Over/Under) matter?
In a low-scoring game (e.g., Total: 38), a 7-point lead is harder to overcome than in a high-scoring game (Total: 55). Therefore, points are worth "more" in low-scoring games, making the favorite's moneyline steeper for the same spread.
Is this accurate for all sports?
This calculator uses a standard model best suited for NFL and College Football. NBA spreads behave differently due to higher variance and scoring frequency, but the estimates remain a useful baseline.
What is the relationship between spread and moneyline?
The spread represents the expected margin of victory, while the moneyline reflects win probability. A larger spread (e.g., -10) indicates a bigger favorite, resulting in a more negative moneyline (e.g., -400). Conversely, underdogs with positive spreads have positive moneylines.
Why would I bet the spread instead of the moneyline?
Spreads offer more balanced odds (typically -110 on both sides) because you're betting on margin of victory. Moneylines pay differently based on probability—heavy favorites pay less, underdogs pay more. Spreads are often preferred for big favorites since moneyline juice can be excessive.