The Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange Gemini has officially launched Gemini Predictions across all 50 U.S. states on December 15, 2025, following CFTC approval of its Designated Contract Market (DCM) license on December 10. This marks a significant milestone in the rapidly growing prediction markets industry.
Five Years in the Making
Gemini’s journey to this launch began back in March 2020 when the company first applied for its DCM license. After nearly five years of regulatory navigation, the approval signals a dramatically shifted regulatory environment under the current CFTC leadership.
CEO Tyler Winklevoss credited the change in administration for ending what he described as a restrictive approach to crypto regulation. Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham has been praised for positioning the agency as more innovation-friendly.
How Gemini Predictions Works
Gemini Predictions operates through Gemini Titan, LLC—a wholly-owned affiliate holding the DCM license. Users can trade binary “yes/no” event contracts settled in U.S. dollars directly from their existing Gemini accounts. Understanding what a wager means helps new users navigate these prediction market contracts. The platform has launched fee-free for a limited time as a promotional incentive.
Available contract categories include crypto and financial outcomes (like Bitcoin price thresholds), economic events (Fed interest rate decisions), political developments, and sports betting. Example contracts include whether Bitcoin will end the year higher than $200,000 or whether Elon Musk’s X will pay a European Commission fine in full.
Competing in a Growing Market
Gemini enters a competitive landscape currently dominated by Kalshi (62% market share with approximately $500M weekly volume) and Polymarket (37% share with around $430M weekly volume). Unlike the decentralized Polymarket, Gemini Predictions operates as a centralized, fully regulated platform with traditional financial infrastructure.
The prediction markets industry saw explosive growth in 2024, with over $11 billion traded during the U.S. presidential election alone. This growth follows a broader trend of mainstream financial platforms integrating prediction markets. Analysts project the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade.
Key Statistics
- GEMI Stock Surge: 13.73% increase in after-hours trading following the CFTC approval announcement
- Market Share: Kalshi holds 62% (~$500M weekly volume), Polymarket at 37% (~$430M weekly)
- 2024 Election Trading: Over $11 billion traded across prediction markets
- Industry Projections: 5x revenue growth to over $10 billion by 2030 (Citizens Financial Group)
- Long-term Forecast: $1 trillion in annual trading volume by end of decade (Eilers & Krejcik)
Regulatory Challenges Remain
Despite federal approval, state-level challenges persist. At least eight states—including Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts—have sent cease-and-desist letters or filed lawsuits against prediction market operators, arguing these platforms constitute unlicensed gambling. MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle has called prediction markets “without a doubt sports betting, full stop.”
Tools for Prediction Market Traders
Traders looking to make informed decisions on prediction markets can benefit from understanding key concepts. Our expected value calculator helps evaluate whether a contract offers positive expected returns, while the Kelly criterion calculator determines optimal position sizing based on your edge and bankroll.
What’s Next
Gemini plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts using the same regulatory framework. With its public company status (NASDAQ: GEMI), existing crypto user base, and integration into its broader “super app” ecosystem, Gemini enters with structural advantages in what analysts describe as an emerging trillion-dollar asset class.
