The Super Bowl isn’t just the biggest game in football—it’s the biggest single betting event in the world. In 2024, Americans wagered an estimated $23.1 billion on Super Bowl LVIII alone. But the Super Bowl is different from regular NFL betting: prop bets dominate, with some sportsbooks offering over 2,000 different wagers from serious player performance props to absurd novelty bets on Gatorade colors. Whether you’re hosting a party, filling out a prop sheet, or seriously trying to beat the books, this guide covers every angle of Super Bowl betting.
Key Highlights
- Prop bets dominate — Up to 70% of Super Bowl betting action is on props, not the game line
- $23+ billion wagered — The Super Bowl is the most-bet single sporting event in America
- Underdogs have been hot — Dogs have covered in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls and won outright in 3 of the last 4
- The winner covers — The eventual champion has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls
- Over/Under is a coin flip — Totals have gone 29-29 over 58 Super Bowls historically
- QBs win MVP — Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 29 times; bet accordingly
Super Bowl Game Betting: Spread, Moneyline & Total
The core bets work exactly like regular NFL betting—point spread, moneyline, and totals. But the Super Bowl has unique characteristics worth understanding.
Point Spread
Super Bowl spreads have been remarkably tight in recent years—the last 15 Super Bowls have all featured spreads of 5 points or less. Blowouts happen, but oddsmakers have gotten excellent at pricing these matchups.
HISTORICAL SPREAD TRENDS
All-time: Favorites are 28-28-2 ATS—a perfect coin flip
Recent trend: Underdogs have covered in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls
Last 4 years: Underdogs covered all four, winning outright three times
Winner correlation: The eventual winner has covered in 10 of the last 11 games
The takeaway? Don’t blindly back favorites. The public loves betting on the perceived “better” team, but the spread often overvalues them. At the same time, note that the winner covering is nearly automatic recently—so if you correctly pick who wins, you’re likely covering too.
Moneyline
Super Bowl moneylines are relatively tight because the matchup features two playoff survivors. You rarely see lines exceeding -200. This makes moneyline betting more viable than in regular season mismatches—you don’t have to risk $300 to win $100.
Over/Under (Total)
Super Bowl totals have gone exactly 29-29 over 58 games—the definition of a coin flip. Unlike regular season games where sharp bettors often find edge on unders, the Super Bowl total is efficiently priced.
That said, recent Super Bowls have featured higher-scoring affairs as offenses have evolved. The public tends to bet overs (rooting for points is more fun), but the line adjusts accordingly.
Player Props: Where the Action Is
Player props are the heart of Super Bowl betting. These wagers focus on individual player performance rather than team outcomes—and they offer the most opportunities to find value.
Super Bowl MVP
The MVP prop is one of the most heavily wagered markets. Historical data makes the strategy simple: bet quarterbacks.
| Position | MVP Wins | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 29 | By far the most common; winning QB is heavy favorite |
| Running Back | 7 | Need dominant rushing performance |
| Wide Receiver | 7 | Cooper Kupp (SB LVI) was most recent |
| Linebacker/Defense | 10 | Von Miller (SB 50) was last defensive MVP |
The winning team’s quarterback wins MVP roughly 50% of the time. If you’re confident in who wins the game, betting that QB for MVP often provides better value than the moneyline itself—similar probability, better odds.
Touchdown Scorer Props
Touchdown props come in two flavors:
- First Touchdown Scorer: Higher odds, higher risk. You need your player to score the game’s first TD.
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Lower odds, safer bet. Your player just needs to score at some point in the game.
PRO TIP: FIRST TD SCORER
For first touchdown scorer props, target red zone threats on the team you expect to receive the opening kickoff (or win the coin toss and defer). The team with first possession has a significant advantage in scoring the game’s first TD. Also remember: the receiver is credited with passing touchdowns, not the quarterback.
Yardage Props
Passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards—these props offer over/under lines on individual player statistics. Key factors to consider:
- Game script: A team trailing will pass more; a team leading will run more
- Matchup: How does the defense perform against the run vs. pass?
- Weather: Wind and cold can suppress passing numbers
- Blowout risk: Starters may sit in garbage time, capping stats
Game Props: Beyond the Final Score
Game props bet on specific in-game occurrences rather than individual players or the final outcome.
First Half/Second Half Lines
You can bet the spread and total for just the first half or second half. These are useful if you have a read on how a game will unfold—maybe you expect a slow start as teams feel each other out, or a blowout once adjustments are made.
First Scoring Play
Will the first score be a touchdown, field goal, or safety? Historically, field goals are the most common first score in the NFL, but Super Bowls—with their aggressive playcalling—see more opening-drive touchdowns.
Team to Score First/Last
The team that scores first has won 38 of 58 Super Bowls (65.5%). This is a real trend worth considering—early momentum matters in championship games.
Turnover Props
In the 45 Super Bowls with a turnover differential, the team with fewer turnovers has gone 35-9-1 ATS (79.5%). This is one of the strongest correlations in Super Bowl history—ball security wins championships.
Novelty Props: The Fun Stuff
These “exotic” props have nothing to do with football—they’re pure entertainment. While serious bettors avoid them, they’re perfect for Super Bowl parties.
Coin Toss
A true 50/50 proposition. Odds are typically -105 on each side (the vig ensures the house wins). No analysis can help you here—it’s pure luck. Last year, the Chiefs won with tails.
National Anthem Length
The over/under on anthem length (usually around 90-120 seconds) is surprisingly analyzable. Research the performer’s previous anthem performances, vocal style, and tendency to embellish. Some singers consistently go long; others keep it tight.
Gatorade Color
What color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach? This prop is driven more by hype than evidence, making it a great spot to take a longshot. Historical data:
- Orange: Most appearances since 2005 (5 times)
- Yellow: Won in Super Bowl LIX at +800 odds
- Clear: Most common historically, but hasn’t hit since Super Bowl 42
NOVELTY PROP STRATEGY
Novelty props carry high vig and offer no real edge. Treat them as entertainment, not investment. If you’re betting them, take longshots with small amounts—the potential payout makes the entertainment value worthwhile. Never bet significant money on a coin toss or Gatorade color.
Super Bowl Betting Strategies
The Super Bowl’s unique characteristics require adjusted strategies:
1. Bet Early on Futures and MVP
Super Bowl futures (betting on a team to win before the playoffs) and MVP odds shift dramatically as the postseason progresses. If you like a team or player, bet early—odds only get shorter as they keep winning. A team available at +800 before Wild Card weekend might be -150 by Super Bowl Sunday.
2. Shop Lines Aggressively
With $23 billion in action, sportsbooks compete fiercely for Super Bowl bets. This creates line discrepancies—you might find one book at -3 and another at -2.5 on the same team. With thousands of prop options, shopping becomes even more critical. Half a point matters.
3. Fade the Public on Game Lines
The Super Bowl attracts casual bettors who overwhelmingly back favorites and overs. Historically, this creates value on underdogs (17 of last 25 covers) and unders. The public inflates lines—consider fading them.
4. Focus on Correlations
Some Super Bowl trends are remarkably consistent:
| Factor | ATS Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Team with fewer turnovers | 35-9-1 | 79.5% |
| Team with more rushing yards | 41-14-3 | 74.5% |
| Team winning time of possession | 39-16-3 | 70.9% |
| Better yards per pass attempt | 37-18-3 | 67.3% |
| Team scoring first | 38-20 SU | 65.5% |
These trends suggest betting on the team you expect to dominate time of possession, run effectively, and protect the ball—which usually correlates with the better team anyway.
5. Use Live Betting Strategically
The Super Bowl’s long breaks (halftime show, extended TV timeouts) create opportunities for live betting. If a team goes down early but you believe they’ll adjust, in-game spreads can offer better value than pre-game lines. Just be disciplined—don’t chase.
Super Bowl Squares: The Party Favorite
Super Bowl squares aren’t sportsbook betting—they’re the classic office pool game. But understanding the math helps:
- How it works: A 10×10 grid where rows and columns are randomly assigned digits 0-9. Your square wins if the last digit of each team’s score matches your row/column at quarter’s end.
- Best numbers: 0, 7, 3, and 4 are historically the most common score endings
- Worst numbers: 2, 5, 8, and 9 rarely hit
- Strategy: Since numbers are randomly assigned, you can’t pick—but you can buy extra squares if the rules allow, increasing your odds
When to Place Super Bowl Bets
Timing matters for Super Bowl betting:
| Bet Type | Best Timing | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Futures | Before playoffs | Odds shorten with each playoff win |
| MVP (longshots) | When lines open | Value disappears as money comes in |
| Game spread | Depends on side | Public money moves favorites; bet dogs early, favorites late |
| Totals | Late (check weather) | Weather forecasts solidify closer to game |
| Player props | Shop all week | Lines vary widely between books |
Tools for Super Bowl Betting
Betting Calculators
Conclusion
The Super Bowl is sports betting at its most chaotic—$23 billion in action, 2,000+ prop options, and the entire country watching. The sheer volume of casual money creates opportunities that don’t exist during the regular season, particularly on underdogs and player props where public bias inflates lines.
Focus on markets where you can find an edge: MVP props (lean QB), touchdown scorers (first possession matters), and the game spread (underdogs have crushed lately). Leave the Gatorade color and coin toss bets for party entertainment, not serious wagering. And remember—the team that protects the ball, runs effectively, and scores first has historically dominated. Use our bankroll calculator to size your bets appropriately, and enjoy the biggest betting day of the year responsibly.
Super Bowl 60 (Super Bowl LX) will be held on February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. This is the home stadium of the San Francisco 49ers and has hosted one previous Super Bowl (Super Bowl 50 in 2016).
Super Bowl prop bets are wagers on specific events within the game rather than the final outcome. They include player props (passing yards, touchdowns scored, MVP), game props (first team to score, total penalties), and novelty props (coin toss result, national anthem length, Gatorade color). Sportsbooks offer 2,000+ props for the Super Bowl, and they account for roughly 70% of total betting action.
Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 29 times—more than all other positions combined. The winning team’s QB wins MVP roughly 50% of the time. Strategy: If you’re confident in which team wins, bet their quarterback for MVP. You’ll often get better odds than the moneyline for a similar probability outcome. The last non-QB to win was Cooper Kupp in Super Bowl LVI (2022).
Historically, it’s a coin flip—favorites are 28-28-2 ATS all-time. However, recent trends favor underdogs: they’ve covered in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls and won outright in 3 of the last 4. The public heavily backs favorites, often inflating lines. That said, the eventual winner has covered in 10 of the last 11 games, so if you correctly pick the winner, they’ll likely cover.
Super Bowl totals have gone exactly 29-29 historically—a perfect coin flip. The public tends to bet overs because rooting for points is more exciting, which can inflate the line. Sharp bettors often find value on unders. Weather is a factor for outdoor Super Bowls, so check forecasts before betting totals. There’s no strong historical lean either direction.
First touchdown scorer props pay out if your selected player scores the game’s first TD. Target red zone threats (goal-line backs, big receivers) on the team you expect to have first possession. Remember: for passing touchdowns, the receiver is credited as the scorer, not the quarterback. Anytime touchdown scorer is a safer alternative—your player just needs to score at any point in the game.
It depends on the bet type. For futures and MVP longshots, bet early—odds shorten as teams win playoff games. For underdogs on the spread, bet early before public money moves the line. For favorites, wait until closer to game time when the line might come back. For totals, wait until weather forecasts are reliable. For player props, shop throughout the week as lines vary significantly between sportsbooks.
Novelty props are entertainment, not investment. The coin toss is a true 50/50 with no edge possible. Gatorade color props carry high vig and are driven by hype rather than evidence. If you bet them, use small amounts and take longshots for entertainment value. Never bet significant money on these markets—the house edge is substantial and there’s no analytical edge to exploit.
