The Polymarket Kalshi Europe crackdown has entered a harder phase. France ordered internet providers to block Polymarket, while Ireland used licensing pressure to secure a Polymarket geoblock without obtaining a court order.
KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
- France: The ANJ president issued an administrative ISP-blocking order against Polymarket on July 16, 2026.
- Ireland: Polymarket imposed close-only access following GRAI intervention; no High Court blocking order had been granted.
- Kalshi: Ireland was already listed as restricted by June 17, but no primary source proves GRAI caused that decision.
- Platform scope: France’s July order named Polymarket only; Spain’s May action explicitly named Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Legal split: European authorities increasingly treat event contracts as gambling or restricted binary options, while the US regulates Kalshi as a derivatives exchange.
Those audience and enforcement figures come from the regulators themselves. According to the French ANJ, Similarweb recorded 578,751 visits from 205,057 unique French visitors in June, while the regulator said it blocked 1,290 illegal-gambling URLs during 2025. In Ireland, GRAI chief executive Anne Marie Caulfield told RTÉ that the authority had intervened with roughly 30 operators.
France Blocks Polymarket With an Administrative Order
France’s move is the more direct of the two. On July 16, the president of the Autorité nationale des jeux used the regulator’s administrative blocking power to order French internet service providers to restrict access to Polymarket. The ANJ announced the decision the following day.
This distinction matters: it was not a court order. France replaced the earlier judicial blocking process with an administrative route, allowing the regulator to act first while leaving its decision open to later review before an administrative court.
The July order was also an escalation rather than France’s first contact with the platform. After an ANJ intervention in November 2024, Polymarket stopped financial transactions from French territory. The site still displayed live markets and odds, however, and users reportedly continued reaching the service through circumvention tools.
The ANJ’s February 2026 position was unequivocal: platforms that accept money on uncertain future outcomes amount to unauthorized gambling offers in France. The regulator has pointed to addiction risks, the absence of French player-protection controls and the potential manipulation of markets or public opinion.
“En France, ces sites ne sont pas autorisés.”
— ANJ (“In France, these sites are not authorized.”)
A separate Paris cybercrime investigation opened on May 4 over suspected manipulation of weather-related markets. That probe did not create the ISP order by itself, but it intensified scrutiny of a platform the ANJ had already classified as unlawful.
France’s approach now resembles the harder end of European enforcement. The Netherlands has also pursued Polymarket as illegal gambling, while our analysis of Polymarket’s sports strategy after Italy’s restrictions shows why regulators are also watching promotion and sponsorship.
GRAI Prediction Markets Policy: Pressure Before Court
Ireland reached a similar outcome through a softer mechanism. Since July 1, businesses providing qualifying remote betting or remote betting-intermediary services to Irish consumers have needed a licence from the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland.
GRAI considers real-money prediction markets capable of falling inside that system. In April, the regulator said the products “bear the hallmarks of betting activity.” A peer-to-peer market can fit the remote betting-intermediary model because the platform facilitates bets between users rather than simply acting as the house.
“We can go to the High Court and get a blocking order for them,” covering “access to the site and also in relation to the funding involved.”
— Anne Marie Caulfield, GRAI chief executive
That was a description of what GRAI could do—not confirmation that a court had already acted. As of July 22, the regulator had used warning letters, investigations and the threat of High Court proceedings. Polymarket then restricted Ireland, with its documented frontend status allowing existing positions to close but preventing new positions from opening.
The Irish route therefore shows how a regulator can produce a practical withdrawal without first winning a blocking order. It also offers a different model from Malta’s attempt to write a prediction-market regulatory framework: Ireland is applying its betting-licensing system rather than designing a bespoke category.
Where Kalshi Fits—and What the Headlines Overstate
Kalshi belongs in the Ireland story, but the evidence does not support saying GRAI forced it out in July. Kalshi’s member agreement dated June 17 already listed Ireland as a restricted jurisdiction for event-contract trading.
No regulator statement or company response found during the research directly connected that restriction to GRAI. The accurate formulation is narrower: Kalshi had already barred Irish trading, while Polymarket restricted Ireland following documented regulator intervention.
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
France did not block Kalshi in its July order. Ireland did not obtain a court order against either platform. Polymarket’s Irish geoblock is directly tied to GRAI intervention; Kalshi’s reason remains unconfirmed.
The caveat matters because Kalshi presents itself as a regulated financial exchange rather than a bookmaker. Its international ambitions—including the expansion examined in our report on Kalshi’s move beyond the US—are now colliding with countries that classify the same products under gambling or binary-option rules.
Open accessible timeline table
| Date | Country | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | France | Polymarket geoblocks financial transactions. |
| 24 Feb 2026 | France | ANJ declares prediction markets unauthorized. |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Ireland | GRAI says prediction markets resemble betting. |
| 4 May 2026 | France | Cybercrime investigation opens. |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Ireland | Kalshi agreement lists Ireland restricted; causation unconfirmed. |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Ireland | Remote-betting licensing requirement takes effect. |
| 16 Jul 2026 | France | ANJ orders an ISP block of Polymarket. |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Ireland | GRAI discloses warnings and possible High Court action. |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Ireland | Polymarket Ireland geoblock is reported. |
Two Enforcement Playbooks, Not One Ban
The timeline reveals a shared direction but not a shared legal process. France moved from an operator-level transaction restriction to a regulator-issued technical block. Ireland moved from a licensing requirement to warnings, investigations and voluntary operator compliance.
That difference affects operators, payment providers and users. A French ISP block acts at the access layer. An Irish High Court order, if eventually sought, could target access and associated funding. The current Polymarket restriction in Ireland instead operates through the platform's own geolocation controls.
- 1ANJ classifies the offer as unauthorized gambling.
- 2Earlier transaction restrictions prove insufficient.
- 3ANJ president issues an administrative order.
- 4ISPs block access to Polymarket.
- 5Later administrative-court review remains possible.
- 1Remote-betting licence rule takes effect.
- 2GRAI applies betting-intermediary rules.
- 3Warnings and investigations create compliance pressure.
- 4High Court access and payment orders remain available.
- 5Polymarket geoblocks new activity voluntarily.
The Polymarket Kalshi Europe Crackdown Widens
France and Ireland are not isolated cases. Spain opened sanctioning proceedings on May 26 and imposed precautionary temporary web blocks against both Polymarket and Kalshi. Belgium placed Polymarket on its illegal-gambling blacklist, while Poland added it to a domain register that triggers ISP blocking.
The severity varies by country. France's block is executed and administrative. Spain's measure is precautionary while proceedings continue. Ireland relies on operator withdrawal backed by the prospect of court action. Treating every country as having imposed the same “ban” would hide the compliance choices each platform faces.
A June statement signed by nine European regulators—including France but not Ireland—also warned about unlicensed prediction markets and the need for sports organizations to verify legality before entering commercial partnerships. Ireland's action is therefore parallel to the coordinated group, not formally part of it.
Open accessible country table
| Country | Status | Date | Platforms |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | Administrative ISP block executed | 16 Jul 2026 | Polymarket |
| Ireland | Operator geoblock after regulatory intervention; court order only threatened | 19–21 Jul 2026 | Polymarket directly; Kalshi already restricted |
| Spain | Sanctioning proceeding and precautionary temporary web block | 26 May 2026 | Polymarket and Kalshi |
| Belgium | Illegal-gambling blacklist, prosecutor referral and ISP-block request | 30 Jan 2025 | Polymarket |
| Poland | Illegal-gambling register entry triggering ISP blocking | 8 Jan 2025 | Polymarket |
Why Europe and the US Classify the Products Differently
The enforcement wave is ultimately a classification dispute. France treats the international prediction-market offer as unauthorized gambling. Ireland views qualifying platforms through remote betting and betting-intermediary rules. ESMA added another layer on July 3 by stating that fixed-or-zero event contracts tied to covered underlyings can be binary options subject to European retail restrictions.
The US framework points in the opposite direction. Kalshi has been a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market since November 2020, and the CFTC argues that prediction markets are commodity derivatives within federal jurisdiction.
“These products are commodity derivatives and squarely within the CFTC's regulatory remit.”
— Michael S. Selig, CFTC chairman
Polymarket itself also requires careful identification. The US-regulated Polymarket exchange and the international crypto platform are not interchangeable for legal analysis. European actions discussed here concern access to the international offering.
The result is not a single worldwide answer to whether prediction markets are gambling or trading. It is a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction contest among gambling statutes, financial-product rules and platform licensing models. Similar debates have reached other markets too, including New Zealand's classification of prediction markets as illegal gambling.
What the Crackdown Means for Operators and Partners
For prediction-market operators, a global terms-of-service list is no longer enough. Europe requires market-by-market analysis of gambling licences, financial-product restrictions, consumer-protection rules and technical blocking powers.
Sports teams, media groups and other commercial partners face their own due-diligence problem. A platform may be legal or regulated in one jurisdiction while inaccessible or unauthorized in another. Sponsorships and promotional odds can therefore create exposure even when the underlying contract is offered from abroad.
Payment routes are also moving closer to the center of enforcement. France has already acted at the ISP layer, while Ireland says a future High Court application could address both access and funding. That combination raises the cost of treating geoblocking as a temporary inconvenience rather than a core compliance control.
FAQs
France's ANJ classified the platform as an unauthorized gambling offer. After an earlier transaction geoblock failed to prevent continued access, the ANJ president issued an administrative ISP-blocking order on July 16, 2026.
Polymarket placed Ireland in close-only status following GRAI intervention. Existing positions can be closed, but users cannot open new positions; the restriction was not imposed through a completed High Court order.
That has not been established. Kalshi's June 17 member agreement already listed Ireland as restricted, but no primary source confirms that GRAI caused the decision.
No. The July 16 French ISP order specifically targets Polymarket, although the ANJ's wider position is that real-money prediction-market sites are unauthorized in France.
There is no single harmonized European gambling regime. Countries can treat the platforms as unlicensed gambling, while ESMA says qualifying event contracts may also fall under retail binary-option restrictions.
France issued an administrative order directing ISPs to block Polymarket. Ireland used warnings, licensing rules and the threat of High Court proceedings, after which Polymarket restricted access through its own geoblocking controls.
Verified examples include France, Ireland, Spain, Belgium and Poland, but the mechanisms differ. Spain's action explicitly named both platforms; France, Belgium and Poland targeted Polymarket, while Ireland produced operator-level restrictions.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, and the CFTC considers prediction markets commodity derivatives under federal jurisdiction. European authorities increasingly apply gambling, betting-intermediary or binary-option rules instead.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- France used an executed ISP block — the ANJ acted administratively against Polymarket without advance court approval.
- Ireland produced operator compliance — Polymarket restricted users after GRAI intervention, while a High Court order remained only a threat.
- Kalshi requires careful wording — it already restricted Ireland, but GRAI causation is not proven.
- Europe is not using one legal theory — gambling, betting-intermediary and binary-option rules can all shape enforcement.
- Operators need country-level controls — licensing, payments, promotion, sponsorship and geoblocking can each create exposure.
Sources
- Polymarket administrative blocking announcement — Autorité nationale des jeux
- French position on prediction-market platforms — Autorité nationale des jeux
- Application of binary-option measures to event contracts — ESMA
- Proceedings and temporary blocks against Polymarket and Kalshi — Spain DGOJ
- Kalshi Member Agreement — Kalshi
- Geographic restriction documentation — Polymarket
- Gambling Regulation Act 2024, section 2 — Irish Statute Book
- Gambling licence applications open — Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland
- Ireland gambling regulator threatens court action — RTÉ
- Polymarket restricts Irish users following regulator intervention — Irish Examiner
- France blocks access to Polymarket website — Reuters via Euronext
