The World Cup 2026 isn’t just on track to become the biggest betting event in history — it’s the first World Cup where regulated sportsbooks and prediction markets are fighting over the same $60 billion. With the tournament now underway across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, analysts say the month-long event will shatter every betting record on the books, including America’s two heavyweights: the Super Bowl and March Madness.
KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE
- Global handle: H2 Gambling Capital projects ~$60 billion in regulated wagers — up from $35 billion in 2022
- US sportsbooks: $2.8 billion base case, up to $4.4 billion if the USMNT goes deep (Eilers & Krejcik)
- Bigger than the Super Bowl: Super Bowl LX took $1.76 billion in legal US wagers — the World Cup could double or triple that
- First of its kind: the first World Cup with prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood) live in all 50 states
- The format: 48 teams and 104 matches across 16 North American host cities, June 11 – July 19
The $60 Billion Tournament
The headline number comes from H2 Gambling Capital, which projects roughly $60 billion in sports betting handle on the tournament through regulated channels worldwide. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon puts the floor above $50 billion — and notes that even his more conservative figure would comfortably beat the $35 billion wagered on Qatar 2022.
Either way, no single sporting event has ever attracted this much betting money. The combination of an expanded 48-team format, North American time zones, and a US market that has matured dramatically since 2022 has created what amounts to a perfect storm for wagering volume.
America’s Biggest Betting Event Ever
For US sportsbooks, the tournament is uncharted territory. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming projects a base case of $2.8 billion in US sportsbook handle, climbing toward $4.4 billion if the US men’s national team makes a deep run on home soil. Deutsche Bank lands in similar territory, projecting $2.5 billion to $4.1 billion with a base case of $3.3 billion.
To put that in perspective: Super Bowl LX drew $1.76 billion in legal US wagers, according to the American Gaming Association — and that’s a single game packed into one Sunday. Even the base-case World Cup projection beats it by more than a billion dollars, and the high case nearly triples it (new to big-game wagering? See our Super Bowl betting guide for how marquee-event betting works).
The operators are bracing for it. Deutsche Bank expects FanDuel to take roughly $1.3 billion of the US handle and DraftKings about $1.1 billion, with BetMGM around $250 million and Caesars near $120 million. On DraftKings’ first-quarter earnings call, CEO Jason Robins called the World Cup “a big event, especially on the acquisition side” — sportsbooks see the tournament less as a profit center and more as the cheapest customer-acquisition event of the decade.
How high the final number climbs depends heavily on one variable: the USMNT. Eilers & Krejcik’s scenarios run from $2.3 billion if the hosts crash out in the group stage to north of $4 billion if they reach the quarterfinals or beyond. Outright-winner wagers are a huge share of tournament volume — our futures betting guide explains how those long-horizon bets work.
Why the Records Will Fall
Related tools: Poisson Score Predictor · Odds Converter
The 2022 World Cup in Qatar was already the biggest betting event of its time. What changed in four years? Almost everything. The tournament grew from 32 teams and 64 matches to 48 teams and 104 matches — roughly 60% more bettable inventory, by Bernstein’s count. Kickoff times moved from Doha mornings to North American prime time. And the share of the US population with legal sports betting access jumped from about 40% in 2022 to roughly 65% today, according to the American Gaming Association.
The appetite is broad, not just deep. A PwC survey found 58% of Americans plan to bet on the World Cup in some form — across sportsbooks, prediction markets, fantasy contests, and casual wagers with friends — and roughly a third of them expect to stake at least $250. Americans bet roughly $1.6–1.8 billion on the 2022 tournament (estimates vary); every projection on the table at least doubles that.
The Prediction-Market Land Grab
Here’s the part of the story most coverage misses: the record won’t be set by sportsbooks alone. This is the first World Cup since prediction markets went mainstream, and platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood are treating it as their coming-out party. Because event contracts trade under federal commodities rules rather than state gambling licenses, they’re accessible in all 50 states — including the ones where sportsbooks still can’t operate. It’s the same regulatory fault line behind the sportsbook-versus-prediction-market power shift we’ve been tracking all year.
“We have long argued that prediction markets represent a new sports engagement monetization layer rather than an existential threat to the books (TikTok, not Napster).”
— Bernstein analysts, who call the World Cup a “potential watershed moment” for the sector
The numbers back up the rhetoric. Bernstein projects more than $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across betting and prediction platforms. Prediction-market momentum was already building before the first whistle: DraftKings disclosed that volume traded on its predictions product jumped 34% month-over-month in May — extending what Bernstein calls “a steep three-month ramp.” CBS News pegs US prediction-market World Cup volume at $2.4 billion on top of $3.1 billion in online sportsbook handle — a combined $5.5 billion. FIFA itself has joined the gold rush: the governing body launched its own official prediction market through an Abu Dhabi blockchain startup.
The Fine Print Behind the Record
A record this big casts a long shadow. A SEON survey of US adults found that 45% of intending bettors don’t trust betting platforms to protect their personal data — but plan to wager anyway. One in four respondents reported receiving World Cup betting scams on social media, and exposure climbs to 33% among Gen Z. Regulators are responding in their own ways: France capped gambling ad spend at €785 million ahead of the tournament, the first budget limit of its kind.
BET SAFELY THIS TOURNAMENT
Stick to licensed operators, ignore betting links sent through social media, never share account credentials, and set a budget before the group stage sweeps you up. A month-long tournament with 104 matches is a marathon, not a sprint.
FAQs
H2 Gambling Capital projects around $60 billion in regulated sports betting handle worldwide, up from roughly $35 billion on the 2022 tournament. US sportsbooks alone are projected to take $2.8–4.4 billion, per Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.
Yes. Super Bowl LX drew $1.76 billion in legal US wagers, while even the base-case World Cup 2026 projection is $2.8 billion — and the high case of $4.4 billion would nearly triple the Super Bowl’s total.
Four reasons: the tournament expanded from 64 to 104 matches, games kick off in North American prime time, about 65% of the US population now has legal sports betting access (vs roughly 40% in 2022), and prediction markets are live in all 50 states for the first time.
Macquarie estimates more than $35 billion was wagered globally on Qatar 2022. In the US, estimates put the total at roughly $1.6–1.8 billion — a figure 2026 projections at least double.
Licensed sportsbooks are available where sports betting is legal — covering about 65% of the US population. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket trade under federal commodities rules and are accessible in all 50 states, though several states are challenging that in court.
Significantly. Eilers & Krejcik’s scenarios range from $2.3 billion in US handle if the team exits in the group stage to more than $4 billion if it reaches the quarterfinals or beyond.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- History’s biggest betting event — H2 Gambling Capital projects ~$60 billion in global regulated handle, up from $35 billion on Qatar 2022
- America’s new betting king — at $2.8–4.4 billion in projected US handle, the World Cup tops Super Bowl LX ($1.76B) and rivals all of March Madness
- The USMNT is the swing factor — a deep home-soil run is worth up to $2 billion in extra US handle, per Eilers & Krejcik
- Prediction markets are the wildcard — Bernstein calls it a “potential watershed moment,” with $2.4 billion in projected US event-contract volume reaching all 50 states
- Mind the fine print — 1 in 4 bettors report World Cup scam exposure on social media; stick to licensed platforms and set limits
Sources
- Americans to Legally Wager Estimated $1.76 Billion on Super Bowl LX — American Gaming Association
- The World Cup Will Likely Be the Biggest Gambling Event in History — CNBC
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Betting Projections — Sports Handle
- H2 Projects $60 Billion Global Sports Betting Handle for 2026 World Cup — Covers
- World Cup Expected to Generate More in Sports Bets Than the Super Bowl — CBS News
- World Cup Could Bring Billions in Volume to Prediction Markets — Yahoo Finance / Bernstein
- World Cup Betting Trends & Statistics: 2026 — InterGame
- DraftKings (DKNG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — The Motley Fool
